2012

An astute political observer by the name of Machiavelli once said that “Anyone wishing to see what is to be must consider what has been”.  Given that recent polls have shown the race for President to be essentially tied, a look at the “tale of the tape” from a current and historical perspective is in order.

The Economy:

No president since World War II has won re-election with an unemployment rate above 7.2%.  The current rate is 8.3%, and has been above 8% for forty-two straight months.  The economy is growing at an annual rate of just 1.5%, and the only president in recent years to run for re-election with a worse growth rate was Jimmy Carter.

The Consumer Confidence level is currently about 60%, which is historically (and electorally) awful, since it was 65% when Carter got clobbered by Reagan in 1980.

According to the Rasmussen Poll, a majority of Americans (54%) think that the economy and their own finances (52%) are getting worse.  Only 40% believe that things will be any better five years from now, and that number is down to 35% among business owners who recently found out that Obama thinks that they didn’t build their own businesses.

The last two times that the economy dominated the election like it does today was in 1992 and 1980, which weren’t good years for incumbents.

King Solomon put it best when he said “there is nothing new under the sun”.  And so it is with politics.

Even now, political history is repeating itself.  We have a Democrat in the White House giving speeches about how America is losing its spirit in the midst of a recession and high unemployment – just like Jimmy Carter in his “Malaise speech” in 1979.  And we have polls indicating that what Americans are really getting tired of is the President.  Again, just like with Carter.

According to the latest Gallup poll, only 42% of the public approve of Obama’s job performance – fewer than any other president at this point in office since the dawn of polling.   And the opinions are pretty strong.

According to pollster Scott Rasmussen, only 23% “strongly approve”, while 38% “strongly disapprove”, leaving Obama fifteen points in the hole when it comes to those who have any passion to their opinions.  Further, 3/4ths of voters think that the nation is on the “wrong track”, and over half of the country still opposes his biggest legislative success, ObamaCare, and want to see it repealed.

Of course none of this bodes well for re-election, which explains Obama’s reach for another historical retread – class warfare.

During the 1992 Clinton campaign there was a famous sign hanging in the campaign headquarters exclaiming “It’s the economy, stupid!”, reminding everyone that the focus of the campaign was that the economy (George Bush sr.’s economy) was terrible, and that it was all his fault. 

Fast forward sixteen years and Obama ran his campaign on a similar notion, but now, three years into his first term and looking towards re-election, things are worse and blaming George W. Bush just won’t cut it.  So, for Obama, it’s all about the politics. 

His recent “jobs” speech to Congress was, at its root, about just one job: his own, and his attempts to keep it.  The whole point was to have a prime-time TV opportunity to set the lay of the land for the coming re-election campaign.  His reading his “plan” from a teleprompter on national TV to members of Congress who are capable of reading it for themselves was neither capable of nor meant to accomplish anything else.

But why the sudden urgency on Obama’s part?  That the economy has been awful is nothing new.  Quite the contrary, it is something all Americans have seen and experienced first hand for several years (except maybe those who work for the government).

If eighteen months ago someone asked you to write a political plan more likely to rile up the American people and throw them into the arms of the Republican Party, it’s hard to imagine anything that would be more successful than what the Democrats have done over the past year and a half.  Not to mention what they plan to do.

Between ObamaCare, the stimulus, civil rights for terrorists and suing Arizona for trying to control its illegal immigration problem, they have been pushing voters to the GOP with both hands.  But in just a few months comes the coup de grace: a massive tax increase – right in the middle of a recession.